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The Black Swan_ The Impact of t - Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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EPILOGUE: YEVGENIA’S WHITE SWANS
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2022-02-24 02:16:08
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Prologue
UMBERTO ECO’S ANTILIBRARY, OR HOW WE SEEK VALIDATION
The Apprenticeship of an Empirical Skeptic
Yevgenia’s Black Swan
The Speculator and the Prostitute
One Thousand and One Days, or How Not to Be a Sucker
Confirmation Shmonfirmation!
The Narrative Fallacy
Living in the Antechamber of Hope
Giacomo Casanova’s Unfailing Luck: The Problem of Silent Evidence
The Ludic Fallacy, or The Uncertainty of the Nerd
Wrapping Up Part One
WE JUST CAN’T PREDICT
The Scandal of Prediction
How to Look for Bird Poop
Epistemocracy, a Dream
Appelles the Painter, or What Do You Do if You Cannot Predict?
THOSE GRAY SWANS OF EXTREMISTAN
From Mediocristan to Extremistan, and Back
The Bell Curve, That Great Intellectual Fraud
The Aesthetics of Randomness
Locke’s Madmen, or Bell Curves in the Wrong Places
The Uncertainty of the Phony
THE END
Half and Half, or How to Get Even with the Black Swan
EPILOGUE: YEVGENIA’S WHITE SWANS
GLOSSARY
POSTSCRIPT ESSAY: ON ROBUSTNESS AND FRAGILITY, DEEPER PHILOSOPHICAL AND EMPIRICAL REFLECTIONS
On Slow but Long Walks
Another Few Barbells
Main Errors in Understanding the Message
Asperger Probability
Living in Two Dimensions
David Freedman, RIP
Not Using the Wrong Map: The Notion of Iatrogenics
VIII—The Ten Principles for a Black-Swan-Robust Society
Nihil Perditi
NOTES
BIBLIOGRAPHY
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS FOR THE FIRST EDITION
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