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Multiples
- Title Page
- Copyright Page
- About the Authors
- Preface
- WHY THIS BOOK
- STRUCTURE OF THE BOOK
- WHAT’S NEW ABOUT THE FIFTH EDITION
- VALUATION SPREADSHEET
- Acknowledgments
- Part One - Foundations of Value
- Chapter 1 - Why Value Value?
- CONSEQUENCES OF FORGETTING TO VALUE VALUE
- Market Bubbles
- Financial Crises
- BENEFITS OF FOCUSING ON LONG-TERM VALUE
- CHALLENGES OF FOCUSING ON LONG-TERM VALUE
- Chapter 2 - Fundamental Principles of Value Creation
- GROWTH AND ROIC: DRIVERS OF VALUE
- Relationship of Growth, ROIC, and Cash Flow
- Balancing ROIC and Growth to Create Value
- Real-World Evidence
- Managerial Implications
- CONSERVATION OF VALUE
- Foundations of the Value Conservation Principle
- Managerial Implications
- RISK AND VALUE CREATION
- Price of Risk
- Cash Flow Risk
- THE MATH OF VALUE CREATION
- SUMMARY
- Chapter 3 - The Expectations Treadmill
- WHY SHAREHOLDER EXPECTATIONS BECOME A TREADMILL
- REAL-WORLD EFFECTS OF THE EXPECTATIONS TREADMILL
- DECOMPOSING TRS
- UNDERSTANDING EXPECTATIONS
- MANAGERIAL IMPLICATIONS
- Chapter 4 - Return on Invested Capital
- DRIVERS OF RETURN ON INVESTED CAPITAL
- COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE
- Price Premium Advantages
- Cost and Capital Efficiency Advantages
- SUSTAINABILITY OF RETURN ON INVESTED CAPITAL
- Length of Product Life Cycle
- Persistence of Competitive Advantage
- Potential for Product Renewal
- EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF RETURNS ON INVESTED CAPITAL
- ROIC Trends
- ROIC by Industry and Company Size
- Sustaining ROIC
- SUMMARY
- Chapter 5 - Growth
- DRIVERS OF REVENUE GROWTH
- GROWTH AND VALUE CREATION
- DIFFICULTY OF SUSTAINING GROWTH
- EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF CORPORATE GROWTH
- Growth Trends
- Growth Across Industries
- Sustaining Growth
- SUMMARY
- Part Two - Core Valuation Techniques
- Chapter 6 - Frameworks for Valuation
- ENTERPRISE DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW MODEL
- Valuing Operations
- Identifying and Valuing Nonoperating Assets
- Identifying and Valuing Nonequity Claims
- Valuing Equity
- ECONOMIC-PROFIT-BASED VALUATION MODELS
- ADJUSTED PRESENT VALUE MODEL
- Valuing Free Cash Flow at Unlevered Cost of Equity
- Valuing Tax Shields and Other Capital Structure Effects
- CAPITAL CASH FLOW MODEL
- CASH-FLOW-TO-EQUITY VALUATION MODEL
- OTHER APPROACHES TO DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW
- ALTERNATIVES TO DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW
- Multiples
- Real Options Using Replicating Portfolios
- SUMMARY
- Chapter 7 - Reorganizing the Financial Statements
- REORGANIZING THE ACCOUNTING STATEMENTS: KEY CONCEPTS
- Invested Capital: Key Concepts
- Net Operating Profit Less Adjusted Taxes: Key Concepts
- Free Cash Flow: Key Concepts
- REORGANIZING THE ACCOUNTING STATEMENTS: IN PRACTICE
- Invested Capital: In Practice
- Computing Invested Capital
- Computing Total Funds Invested
- NOPLAT: In Practice
- Calculating NOPLAT
- Reconciliation to Net Income
- Free Cash Flow: In Practice
- Calculating Free Cash Flow
- Cash Flow Available to Investors
- Reconciling Cash Flow Available to Investors
- ADVANCED ANALYTICAL ISSUES
- Operating Leases
- Pensions and Other Postretirement Benefits
- Capitalized Research and Development
- Nonoperating Charges and Restructuring Reserves
- Chapter 8 - Analyzing Performance and Competitive Position
- ANALYZING RETURNS ON INVESTED CAPITAL
- Analyzing ROIC with and without Goodwill and Acquired Intangibles
- Analyzing ROIC Using Market versus Book Invested Capital
- Decomposing ROIC to Build an Integrated Perspective of Company Economics
- ANALYZING REVENUE GROWTH
- Currency Effects
- Mergers and Acquisitions
- Accounting Changes and Irregularities
- Decomposing Revenue Growth to Build an Integrated Perspective of Company Economics
- CREDIT HEALTH AND CAPITAL STRUCTURE
- Coverage
- Leverage
- Payout Ratio
- Valuation Metrics
- ALTERNATIVES TO ROIC
- GENERAL CONSIDERATIONS
- Chapter 9 - Forecasting Performance
- DETERMINE LENGTH AND DETAIL OF THE FORECAST
- COMPONENTS OF A GOOD MODEL
- MECHANICS OF FORECASTING
- Step 1: Prepare and Analyze Historical Financials
- Step 2: Build the Revenue Forecast
- Step 3: Forecast the Income Statement
- Step 4: Forecast the Balance Sheet: Invested Capital and Nonoperating Assets
- Step 5: Forecast the Balance Sheet: Investor Funds
- Step 6: Calculate ROIC and FCF
- ADDITIONAL ISSUES
- Nonfinancial Operating Drivers
- Fixed versus Variable Costs
- Inflation
- Chapter 10 - Estimating Continuing Value
- RECOMMENDED FORMULA FOR DCF VALUATION
- RECOMMENDED FORMULA FOR ECONOMIC-PROFIT VALUATION
- SUBTLETIES OF CONTINUING VALUE
- Does Length of Forecast Affect a Company’s Value?
- Confusion about Competitive-Advantage Period
- When Is Value Created?
- COMMON PITFALLS
- Naive Base Year Extrapolation
- Naive Overconservatism
- Purposeful Overconservatism
- EVALUATING OTHER APPROACHES TO CONTINUING VALUE
- Other DCF Approaches
- Non-Cash-Flow Approaches
- ADVANCED FORMULAS FOR CONTINUING VALUE
- Chapter 11 - Estimating the Cost of Capital
- WEIGHTED AVERAGE COST OF CAPITAL
- ESTIMATING THE COST OF EQUITY
- Capital Asset Pricing Model
- Alternatives to the CAPM: Fama-French Three-Factor Model
- Alternatives to the CAPM: Arbitrage Pricing Theory
- In Defense of Beta
- ESTIMATING THE AFTER-TAX COST OF DEBT
- Bond Ratings and Yield to Maturity
- Below-Investment-Grade Debt
- Incorporating the Interest Tax Shield
- USING TARGET WEIGHTS TO DETERMINE THE COST OF CAPITAL
- Estimating Current Capital Structure
- Reviewing Capital Structure of Comparable Companies
- Reviewing Management’s Financing Philosophy
- COMPLEX CAPITAL STRUCTURES
- Chapter 12 - Moving from Enterprise Value to Value per Share
- VALUING NONOPERATING ASSETS
- Excess Cash and Marketable Securities
- Nonconsolidated Subsidiaries and Equity Investments
- Loans to Other Companies
- Finance Subsidiaries
- Discontinued Operations
- Excess Real Estate
- Tax Loss Carry-Forwards
- Excess Pension Assets
- VALUING DEBT AND DEBT EQUIVALENTS
- Debt
- Operating Leases
- Securitized Receivables
- Unfunded Pension and Other Postretirement Liabilities
- Provisions
- Contingent Liabilities
- VALUING HYBRID SECURITIES AND MINORITY INTERESTS
- Convertible Debt and Convertible Preferred Stock
- Employee Stock Options
- Minority Interests
- ESTIMATING VALUE PER SHARE
- Chapter 13 - Calculating and Interpreting Results
- VERIFYING VALUATION RESULTS
- Is the Model Technically Robust?
- Is the Model Economically Consistent?
- Are the Results Plausible?
- SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
- Assessing the Impact of Individual Drivers
- Analyzing Trade-Offs
- CREATING SCENARIOS
- VALUATION BY PARTS
- Creating Business Unit Financial Statements
- Cost of Capital
- THE ART OF VALUATION
- Chapter 14 - Using Multiples to Triangulate Results
- USING THE RIGHT MULTIPLE
- Why EV to EBITA, Not Price to Earnings?
- Why EV to EBITA, Not EV to EBIT?
- Why EV to EBITA, Not EV to EBITDA?
- Use Forward-Looking Multiples
- CALCULATING THE MULTIPLE IN A CONSISTENT MANNER
- Advanced Adjustments
- USING THE RIGHT PEER GROUP
- ALTERNATIVE MULTIPLES
- Enterprise Value to Revenues
- PEG Ratios
- Multiples Based on Nonfinancial (Operational) Data
- SUMMARY
- Part Three - Intrinsic Value and the Stock Market
- Chapter 15 - Market Value Tracks Return on Invested Capital and Growth
- STOCK MARKETS TRACK ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS
- Explaining Market Returns over Two Centuries
- Understanding Recent Market Movements
- Modeling the Market over One-Year Periods
- COMPANY VALUATION LEVELS TRACK RETURN ON INVESTED CAPITAL AND GROWTH
- Value, Return on Invested Capital, and Growth: Theoretical Relationship
- Value, Return on Invested Capital, and Growth: Evidence of Actual Relationship
- TOTAL RETURNS TO SHAREHOLDERS TRACK PERFORMANCE AGAINST EXPECTATIONS
- Total Returns to Shareholders, Expectations, Return on Invested Capital, and Growth: Theoretical Relationship
- Total Returns to Shareholders, Expectations, Return on Invested Capital, and Growth: Evidence of Actual Relationship
- SUMMARY
- Chapter 16 - Markets Value Substance, Not Form
- MANAGING EARNINGS: NOT WORTH THE EFFORT
- The Market Does Not Care about Earnings Volatility
- Markets Dig beneath Earnings Announcements
- ECONOMICS OF ACCOUNTING INFORMATION: NO MYSTERY TO THE MARKET
- Different Accounting Standards Do Not Lead to Different Values
- Treatment of Goodwill Does Not Affect Share Price
- Accounting for Employee and Management Stock Options Is Irrelevant to Market Value
- LIFO versus FIFO Affects Market Values—But Not Because of Earnings Impact
- TECHNICAL TRADING FACTORS ARE IRRELEVANT FOR VALUE
- True Impact of Stock Splits
- Index Membership Does Not Matter to Value
- Cross-Listing Does Not Affect Market Value
- SUMMARY
- Chapter 17 - Emotions and Mispricing in the Market
- EMOTIONS RARELY DRIVE STOCK MARKET VALUES
- COMPANY MISPRICING: CARVE-OUTS AND DUAL LISTINGS
- COMPANY MISPRICING: OVERREACTION AND UNDERREACTION, REVERSAL AND MOMENTUM
- MARKET MISPRICING: BUBBLES AND BURSTS
- High-Tech Bubble Driving Up Market Expectations
- Credit Bubble Driving Up Corporate Earnings
- SUMMARY
- Chapter 18 - Investors and Managers in Efficient Markets
- INVESTORS IN EFFICIENT MARKETS
- A Model of the Market
- Classification of Investors
- Intrinsic Investors Drive Valuation Levels
- MANAGERIAL IMPLICATIONS
- Focus on Intrinsic Value
- Understand Your Shareholder to Tailor Investor Communications
- Be Cautious about Deviations
- Part Four - Managing for Value
- Chapter 19 - Corporate Portfolio Strategy
- WHAT MAKES AN OWNER THE BEST
- Unique Links with Other Businesses
- Distinctive Skills
- Better Governance
- Better Insight and Foresight
- Influence on Critical Stakeholders
- THE BEST-OWNER LIFE CYCLE
- CONSTANTLY EVOLVING PORTFOLIO OF BUSINESSES
- CONSTRUCTING THE PORTFOLIO
- THE MYTH OF DIVERSIFICATION
- SUMMARY
- Chapter 20 - Performance Management
- CHOOSING THE RIGHT METRICS
- Identifying Value Drivers
- Benefits of Understanding Your Business’s Value Drivers
- Tailoring Value Driver Trees to Specific Companies
- Setting Effective Targets
- The Right Metrics in Action
- ORGANIZATIONAL SUPPORT
- Buy-In to Performance Management at All Levels
- Motivating Targets
- Fact-Based Performance Reviews
- Appropriate Rewards
- SUMMARY
- Chapter 21 - Mergers and Acquisitions
- VALUE CREATION FRAMEWORK
- EMPIRICAL RESULTS
- ARCHETYPES FOR VALUE-CREATING ACQUISITIONS
- Improve Target Company’s Performance
- Consolidate to Remove Excess Capacity from Industry
- Accelerate Market Access for Target’s (or Buyer’s) Products
- Get Skills or Technologies Faster or at Lower Cost Than They Can Be Built
- Pick Winners Early and Help Them Develop Their Businesses
- MORE DIFFICULT STRATEGIES FOR CREATING VALUE FROM ACQUISITIONS
- Roll-Up Strategy
- Consolidate to Improve Competitive Behavior
- Enter into a Transformational Merger
- Buy Cheap
- ESTIMATION OF OPERATING IMPROVEMENTS
- Estimating Cost Savings
- Estimating Revenue Improvements
- Evaluating the Quality and Accuracy of Improvement Estimates
- Implementation Costs, Requirements, and Timing
- HOW TO PAY: IN CASH OR IN STOCK?
- FOCUS ON VALUE CREATION, NOT ACCOUNTING
- SUMMARY
- Chapter 22 - Creating Value through Divestitures
- VALUE CREATION FROM DIVESTITURES
- Evidence for Value from Divestitures
- Why Divestitures Create Value
- Why Executives Shy Away from Divestitures
- HOW TO APPROACH DIVESTITURES
- Synergies and Shared Assets, Services, or Systems
- Financing and Fiscal Changes
- Legal, Contractual, or Regulatory Barriers
- Pricing and Liquidity of the Assets
- DECIDING ON TRANSACTION TYPE
- Public and Private Forms of Divestiture
- SUMMARY
- Chapter 23 - Capital Structure
- CAPITAL STRUCTURE AND VALUE CREATION
- Trade-Offs in Capital Structure Design
- Is There an Optimal Capital Structure?
- CREDIT RATINGS AND CAPITAL STRUCTURE
- Drivers of Credit Ratings: Coverage and Size
- Credit Spreads from Credit Ratings
- Leverage and Solvency versus Coverage
- Market-Based Rating Approach
- SHORT-TERM STEPS TO MANAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
- Raising Additional Funds
- Redeeming Excess Funds
- DESIGNING A LONG-TERM CAPITAL STRUCTURE
- Project Funding Surplus or Deficit
- Develop Target Capital Structure
- Decide on Tactical Measures
- CREATING VALUE FROM FINANCIAL ENGINEERING
- Derivative Instruments
- Off-Balance-Sheet Financing
- Hybrid Financing
- SUMMARY
- Chapter 24 - Investor Communications
- INTRINSIC VALUE VERSUS MARKET VALUE
- Example 1: Chemco
- Example 2: PharmaCo
- UNDERSTANDING THE INVESTOR BASE
- COMMUNICATING TO INTRINSIC INVESTORS
- Transparency
- Guidance
- SUMMARY
- Part Five - Advanced Valuation Issues
- Chapter 25 - Taxes
- OPERATING TAXES ON THE REORGANIZED INCOME STATEMENT
- Computing Operating Taxes Using Public Statements
- Computing Operating Taxes: Simple Methods to Contend with Incomplete Data
- Unsuitable Alternatives for Computing Operating Taxes
- CONVERTING OPERATING TAXES TO OPERATING CASH TAXES
- DEFERRED TAXES ON THE REORGANIZED BALANCE SHEET
- VALUING DEFERRED TAXES
- Chapter 26 - Nonoperating Expenses, One-Time Charges, Reserves, and Provisions
- NONOPERATING EXPENSES AND ONE-TIME CHARGES
- Reorganizing the Income Statement
- Searching the Notes for Hidden One-Time Items
- Analyzing Each Extraordinary Item for Impact on Future Operations
- PROVISIONS AND THEIR CORRESPONDING RESERVES
- Adjustments for the Provisions
- Provisions and Taxes
- Chapter 27 - Leases, Pensions, and Other Obligations
- OPERATING LEASES
- Adjusting for Operating Leases: An Example
- Estimating the Value of Leased Assets
- Research on Operating Leases as a Form of Debt
- SECURITIZED RECEIVABLES
- PENSIONS AND OTHER POSTRETIREMENT BENEFITS
- Analyzing and Valuing Pensions: DuPont Example
- Expected Return and Earnings Manipulation
- Chapter 28 - Capitalized Expenses
- EXPENSING VERSUS CAPITALIZATION
- PROCESS FOR CAPITALIZING R&D
- Building and Amortizing the R&D Asset
- Adjusting Invested Capital for Capitalized Expenses
- Adjusting NOPLAT for Capitalized Expenses
- ROIC AND FREE CASH FLOW WITH CAPITALIZED R&D
- OTHER EXPENSES SUITABLE FOR CAPITALIZATION
- Chapter 29 - Inflation
- INFLATION LEADS TO LOWER VALUE CREATION
- HISTORICAL ANALYSIS IN TIMES OF HIGH INFLATION
- FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS IN REAL AND NOMINAL TERMS
- SUMMARY
- Chapter 30 - Foreign Currency
- FORECASTING CASH FLOWS IN FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC CURRENCY
- ESTIMATING THE COST OF CAPITAL IN FOREIGN CURRENCY
- INCORPORATING FOREIGN-CURRENCY RISK IN VALUATIONS
- USING TRANSLATED FOREIGN-CURRENCY FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
- SUMMARY
- Chapter 31 - Case Study: Heineken
- INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENTS
- REORGANIZING FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
- Income Statement and NOPLAT
- Balance Sheet and Invested Capital
- Free Cash Flow Statement
- ANALYZING HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE
- Pro Forma Adjustments for Scottish & Newcastle Acquisition
- Growth and ROIC Analysis
- Stock Market
- FORECASTING PERFORMANCE
- Creating Scenarios
- Short-Term Forecasting
- Midterm Forecasting
- Check for Reasonableness
- ESTIMATING COST OF CAPITAL
- Capital Structure
- Cost of Debt
- Cost of Equity
- ESTIMATING CONTINUING VALUE
- CALCULATING AND INTERPRETING RESULTS
- Value in the Business-as-Usual Scenario
- Additional Scenarios and Probability Weighting
- Part Six - Special Situations
- Chapter 32 - Valuing Flexibility
- UNCERTAINTY, FLEXIBILITY, AND VALUE
- Drivers of Flexibility Value
- CLASSIFYING FLEXIBILITY IN TERMS OF REAL OPTIONS
- Option to Defer Investment
- Abandonment Option
- Follow-On (Compound) Option
- Option to Expand or Contract
- Option to Extend or Shorten
- Option to Increase or Decrease Scope
- Switching Options
- METHODS FOR VALUING FLEXIBILITY
- Real-Option Valuation (ROV)
- Valuation Based on Decision Tree Analysis (DTA)
- Comparing ROV and DTA Approaches
- FOUR-STEP PROCESS FOR VALUING FLEXIBILITY
- Real-Option Valuation: A Numerical Example
- REAL-OPTION VALUATION AND DECISION TREE ANALYSIS: A NUMERICAL EXAMPLE
- DTA Approach: Technological Risk
- ROV Approach: Technological and Commercial Risk
- SUMMARY
- Chapter 33 - Valuation in Emerging Markets
- HISTORICAL ANALYSIS
- CREATING A CONSISTENT SET OF ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
- FORECASTING CASH FLOWS
- INCORPORATING EMERGING-MARKET RISKS IN THE VALUATION
- Scenario DCF Approach
- Country Risk Premium DCF Approach
- Scenario DCF as Prime Valuation Approach
- Constructing Cash Flow Scenarios and Probabilities
- ESTIMATING COST OF CAPITAL IN EMERGING MARKETS
- Fundamental Assumptions
- Estimating the Cost of Equity
- Estimating the After-Tax Cost of Debt
- Estimating WACC
- Estimating the Country Risk Premium
- CALCULATING AND INTERPRETING RESULTS
- Triangulating with Multiples and Country Risk Premium Approach
- SUMMARY
- Chapter 34 - Valuing High-Growth Companies
- VALUATION PROCESS FOR HIGH-GROWTH COMPANIES
- Start from the Future
- Work Backward to Current Performance
- Develop Scenarios
- Weight Scenarios Consistently with Historical Evidence
- UNCERTAINTY IS HERE TO STAY
- SUMMARY
- Chapter 35 - Valuing Cyclical Companies
- SHARE PRICE BEHAVIOR
- When Market and DCF Valuations Diverge
- Are Earnings Forecasts the Culprit?
- The Market Appears Smarter than the Consensus Forecast
- APPROACH TO VALUING CYCLICAL COMPANIES
- IMPLICATIONS FOR MANAGING CYCLICAL COMPANIES
- SUMMARY
- Chapter 36 - Valuing Banks
- ECONOMICS OF BANKING
- Net Interest Income
- Fee and Commission Income
- Trading Income
- Other Income
- PRINCIPLES OF BANK VALUATION
- Analyzing and Forecasting Equity Cash Flows
- Discounting Equity Cash Flows
- Pitfalls of Equity DCF Valuation
- Economic-Spread Analysis
- Economic Spread versus Net Interest Income
- COMPLICATIONS IN BANK VALUATIONS
- Convergence of Forward Interest Rates
- Loan Loss Provisions
- Risk-Weighted Assets and Equity Risk Capital
- Multibusiness Banks
- SUMMARY
- APPENDIX A - Economic Profit and the Key Value Driver Formula
- APPENDIX B - Discounted Economic Profit Equals Discounted Free Cash Flow
- APPENDIX C - Derivation of Free Cash Flow, Weighted Average Cost of Capital, ...
- ENTERPRISE DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW
- ADJUSTED PRESENT VALUE
- APPENDIX D - Levering and Unlevering the Cost of Equity
- UNLEVERED COST OF EQUITY
- Unlevered Cost of Equity When ktxa Equals kd
- LEVERED COST OF EQUITY
- Levered Cost of Equity When ktxa Equals kd
- LEVERED BETA
- APPENDIX E - Leverage and the Price-to-Earnings Multiple
- STEP 1
- STEP 2
- STEP 3
- Index
- A
- B
- C
- D
- E
- F
- G
- H
- I
- J
- K
- L
- M
- N
- O
- P
- Q
- R
- S
- T
- U
- V
- W
- Y
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